College Football Picks

Bet against Colorado State. The Jay Norvell Era is coming to a halting conclusion. At 0-4 outright against FBS foes this season, the Rams see their road to nowhere, and they should be about to check out. Fresno State's dynamic passing offense may run up the score on Friday night, and Colorado State has no effective offense capable of keeping up, not even against the Bulldogs' ugly defense.

Yes, Alabama lost in the season-opener in a primetime spot against Florida State. We all saw it. Now forget about it. Stop holding that against the Tide. Ty Simpson has become a top-five QB in the country, and Alabama has gone 4-0 against the spread since that season opener, including an upset win at Georgia two weeks ago. Missouri's offense will play into the Tide's wants, inclined to run the ball in the first place and encouraged to do so by the defense facing the highest rushing rate in the country. That will be a mistake, the Tigers' rushing attack nowhere near capable of keeping up with Simpson.

This is a massive letdown spot for Air Force, having just emptied its playbook in a one-score loss against its most hated rival, Navy. The Falcons took their shot; they missed. And now they head on the road to face a UNLV team that thrives on the margins and is pondering a Playoff run. Dan Mullen's flaws were never worries on Saturdays, and this Saturday should feature him calling multiple deep passes over Air Force's vulnerable aerial defense.

Kansas State star running back Dylan Edwards continues to fight a foot/ankle issue, and when he is limited, so are the Wildcats. Facing TCU QB Josh Hoover, any downgrade of Kansas State's offense is a downgrade too much. Furthermore, if this game starts to go sideways for the Wildcats, the home crowd may turn against head coach Chris Klieman and QB Avery Johnson.

Both of these defenses rank in the Top 10 in quality drive rate allowed, and also rank Top 10 in available yards allowed. And they each rank in the Top 25 in early down success rate. 

I see this as a game where Oregon struggles again to reach 30 points. But even if the Ducks do so, they’ll hold Indiana closer to 20 as part of covering. That will allow us to benefit from the rising total to stay under the number. 

The Ducks have gotten two weeks to recover from that thrilling win over Penn State, and Dante Moore showed immense poise against the Nittany Lions and that raucous atmosphere. Now it’s his turn to have his fans behind him, and I’m not sure Indiana will be up for the task after the cross-country trip.

Indiana has had a week off after a close win at Iowa, but there were warning signs in that contest. Iowa's anemic offense had decent success, and the Hoosiers might not have won had Iowa's quarterback not gotten hurt.

Iowa had a havoc rate of 15% on defense, vastly outperforming the 9% mark it had coming into that game. Oregon will do enough defensively to cover the spread, which has dropped down to -8.5 after it opened as a double-digit favorite. 

Both teams have been hyper-effective on offense, but this is a lot of points in a game that should have a pretty slow pace of play. Both teams should have enough offensive success to keep the clock ticking, but not enough to light up the scoreboard. 

USC's season-long numbers are inflated by blowouts over Group of 5 teams in non-con play, but Michigan's recent performance has been more impressive.

Georgia's offense has been terrifc, and Auburn's offense should be able to establish its identity against a defense that ranks 125th in pass rush grade.

The situational factors benefit Auburn (Jordan-Hare, rivalry, night game, off a bye), and the matchups on paper (UGA struggling in pass rush, Auburn's ability to stop the run) are favorable as well.